Zafarani UWINGABIRE (LEREPS, ENSFEA Toulouse) : INCIDENCE OF POLLINATORS DECLINE ON THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE: WELFARE AND FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS

Between 2000 and 2012, the exports value of global agricultural commodities nearly tripled and its volume increased by 60%. Yet, since 2006 there is an important loss in pollinators population which has direct and indirect impacts on agriculture production. In fact, the pollination service contributes heavily to the quantity and the quality of crops production. For quantity concern, the insect pollination service participates up to 67 % of global crop production in volume, representing 35% of cultivated species (Klein et al, 2007). The contribution of this service to the global agricultural sector is estimated at between 153 and 260 billion euros (Lautenbach et al. 2012; Gallai et al., 2009). The quality of the crops is measured in terms of nutrients provision, where, the production of nutrients depending on pollinators worldwide is estimated at 40% (Ellis et al., 2015). Nevertheless, this dependence is observed mainly in countries with high rate of undernourishment (Eilers et al., 2011). Consequently, it is an essential provisioning ecosystem service for the well-being of our society.

Many questions in the scientific literature raised on the consequences of this decline all over the world. Breeze et al. (2014) demonstrated that the supply of pollinators in Europe was becoming increasingly inadequate due to the increase in production itself supported by public policies, including stimulating the production of biofuels. Aizen et al. (2008) demonstrated also that, since 1960, the production of insect pollination dependent crops increase more than non-dependent ones while the quantity of pollinators is decreasing. These results underlie the needs to analyze this decline at the world scale. Various researches value pollinators at a large scale (e.g. Gallai et al. 2009, Lautenbach et al. 2012, Leonhardt et al. 2013) but these studies do not consider the market consequences of the pollinator decline. Indeed, the lower provision of pollination, would lower the yield and consequently increase the marginal cost of production (Winfree et al. 2001). As a consequence, the market equilibrium would change: the market prices will increase while the demand and the production would decrease. These variations in the market equilibrium would impact 1) in the social welfare and more precisely on the consumer and producer surpluses and 2) the provision of nutrients.

Our study proposes an international trade model that integrate pollinators into the production factors of farmers to measure these impact effects. Our findings show that the pollinator decline might decrease the overall crop trade value and exacerbate the food insecurity in less developed regions. Furthermore, it suggests that a country comparative advantage can be created if pollinator management practices are improved and sustained.


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